# Transcript: Waves on the horizon: learn to surf the trends

## Description

Pavlína Louženská will also explain the difference between megatrends, trends, and hypes, how to anticipate these changes, and how to stay prepared for the speed around us through diversity and continuous learning.



Who is Pavlína Louženská



Pavlína Louženská focuses on trends – her trend forecasting agency TrendBrews consults on the future not only for Fortune 500 companies and is part of the international trendspotters community Culture Connectors. She is the lead mentor for Google for Startups across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and works with many other accelerators supporting the development of tech startups. Pavlína serves on the advisory boards of various tech companies and foundations – including the Independent Press Foundation. Her newsletter on trends and technologies pavlinaspeaks.substack.com is subscribed to by over 12,000 people and Substack ranked it among the Top 50 Rising in Business.

## Transcript

**[00:00:00]** Hello and good day, my name is Honza Mašek and I am presenting the development development development devel...

**[00:00:30]** Welcome everyone to another Brain&Breakfast.

**[00:00:34]** Welcome to all of you watching us live, whether you're at school, coworking, or the library.

**[00:00:42]** Welcome to everyone who made the trip here to Arkády, to the Magenta Experience Center.

**[00:00:48]** Today will be very, very interesting for me as an innovator.

**[00:00:54]** I might do a quick summary at the start for those who joined or are watching for the first time.

**[00:01:00]** There are two branches of breakfasts, business and classic, so today it will be about inspiration, about the classic breakfasts

**[00:01:06]** Brain&Breakfast, which we've been organizing for about 13 years.

**[00:01:12]** We couldn't hold them without partners we can rely on.

**[00:01:17]** So it's Magenta Experience Center, Fructissimo, these are partners of a healthy and good breakfast,

**[00:01:22]** which those of you watching live won't enjoy, but that gives even more motivation.

**[00:01:27]** It's for you to consider coming next time and being here with us in person,

**[00:01:31]** or Slajdu, which is the interactivity partner, so slowly get your mobile phones ready,

**[00:01:36]** because you'll need them and the breakfast will be interactive as always.

**[00:01:41]** Behind all of this stands the Red Button network.

**[00:01:45]** The QR code you see will take you to a newsletter called Shortcut

**[00:01:50]** where you'll learn everything happening in the network and what individual members are doing that's interesting.

**[00:01:58]** As I said, the breakfast is interactive, so you can scan this QR code,

**[00:02:06]** or go to www.slajdu.com, the hashtag is Brain, for some time now,

**[00:02:13]** or if you're watching us directly on the Red Button.edu platform,

**[00:02:17]** the Slajdu window is below the window where you're watching us.

**[00:02:21]** And I'll put my favorite question at the start, which is,

**[00:02:27]** whether this is your first time at a breakfast or if you've been to one before.

**[00:02:31]** So please, let's check our connection, whether you're here or watching us.

**[00:02:38]** Well, I can't see anything traditionally, but the only thing I see is,

**[00:02:44]** that about 70% have been to breakfasts before and 25%,

**[00:02:51]** are here for the first time. That's good,

**[00:02:57]** because that expands our bubble by 25%, which is one quarter,

**[00:03:03]** and I'm very glad. Well, you didn't come here for me today.

**[00:03:08]** You came to see what the trends are, how things are done.

**[00:03:13]** And so I can welcome Pavlína Louženská.

**[00:03:18]** Pavlína, welcome to Brain and Breakfast. Hi.

**[00:03:23]** Hi. You might not know, but I've been chasing Pavlína for years.

**[00:03:29]** It never worked out. So I'm glad it finally did, and I'm really looking forward to your talk

**[00:03:34]** and presentation. I'm also looking forward to our discussion.

**[00:03:37]** Feel free to ask if you have any questions.

**[00:03:40]** Pavlína, here’s the baton, and thank you very much.

**[00:03:42]** Thank you too. Thanks to all of you watching the broadcast,

**[00:03:46]** and thanks to everyone who came to watch live today.

**[00:03:49]** I don’t feel like I’m just talking to a blank wall here.

**[00:03:53]** I’m Pavlína Louženská, and I’m a Trend Forecaster.

**[00:03:57]** What does that mean? If you asked my dad,

**[00:04:00]** he’d probably say I’m unemployed rather than explain what I do.

**[00:04:04]** When I go to Czech Radio, they say I’m a prognosticator,

**[00:04:08]** which puts me in the same category as Miloš Zeman.

**[00:04:12]** So I always say no to that.

**[00:04:15]** I prefer to say I have a crystal ball and read the future in it.

**[00:04:19]** And that’s what I do most of the time.

**[00:04:21]** I help companies predict the future.

**[00:04:23]** I look at current societal trends and what will come next.

**[00:04:27]** Who the customers are, like Generation Z, Generation Alpha,

**[00:04:31]** and what the future of our customers will look like.

**[00:04:34]** Today, I’ll teach you how to read crystal balls.

**[00:04:37]** My mission is to teach people to read the future better,

**[00:04:41]** so they can navigate it more easily.

**[00:04:44]** That means in the next hour, I’ll show you

**[00:04:47]** how Transport Inc. works and especially how to apply it in practice.

**[00:04:51]** I hope you’ll take away a lot.

**[00:04:53]** It will be very fast today.

**[00:04:55]** Most of you will probably feel like you can’t keep up and that I speak too fast.

**[00:04:59]** The great thing is we have a recording, so you can replay it

**[00:05:03]** at 0.75 speed if you feel it’s too fast with me.

**[00:05:09]** Okay. I’ll be happy to take any questions.

**[00:05:12]** We’ll have slides and anything else.

**[00:05:14]** Right at the start,

**[00:05:16]** I’m curious what trends you see around you.

**[00:05:19]** I’m opening a slide now, write anything there.

**[00:05:22]** There’s no wrong answer.

**[00:05:24]** Give me any answer about trends you see around you.

**[00:05:29]** It can be a tiny trend, a huge trend, anything that comes to mind.

**[00:05:38]** So far, nothing is popping up there.

**[00:05:41]** Ok, so three AIs, great.

**[00:05:45]** Now something else.

**[00:05:54]** I love this breadth.

**[00:05:57]** You see, on one side we have population aging

**[00:06:00]** and on the other side we have wide jeans.

**[00:06:02]** And this is exactly the kind of debate I have when I talk to someone about trends,

**[00:06:07]** that on one side there's AI and on the other side there are these sneakers.

**[00:06:11]** And we call all of that trends.

**[00:06:13]** So let's maybe start by dividing these trends.

**[00:06:17]** On one side, there are hypes.

**[00:06:19]** These are short-term things that come from social media.

**[00:06:22]** Typically it can be a hashtag, some aesthetics,

**[00:06:25]** or a song that's trending on TikTok right now.

**[00:06:28]** And you can recognize them very easily.

**[00:06:31]** When you open Google Trends, you see it suddenly spikes

**[00:06:34]** and then it drops very quickly.

**[00:06:36]** Usually hypes last no more than six weeks and then disappear completely.

**[00:06:40]** It's like Kim Kardashian's dresses.

**[00:06:43]** When she wears one, you see it everywhere,

**[00:06:46]** but then it's like it never existed after a week.

**[00:06:49]** Hypes are typically great for us as people who run a great cult,

**[00:06:53]** because you can use them in communication campaigns,

**[00:06:56]** but I understand, it makes no sense to build a whole strategy on them.

**[00:06:59]** The second thing we talk about are trends.

**[00:07:02]** Trends are longer-term.

**[00:07:04]** It's something like we've been talking about sustainability for years,

**[00:07:07]** or that everyone listens to podcasts,

**[00:07:10]** or that we started drinking matcha or going to yoga and pilates.

**[00:07:14]** You recognize them by a slower rise in Google Trends,

**[00:07:18]** so you know they will last much longer.

**[00:07:22]** It's something you can count on and possibly build your strategy around.

**[00:07:26]** And the last thing that interests us as Trend Forecasters the most,

**[00:07:31]** are megatrends.

**[00:07:33]** What you wrote about, population aging or technological acceleration,

**[00:07:37]** or globalization.

**[00:07:39]** I'll talk about these a lot more today,

**[00:07:41]** but these are the three types of trends we have at the start.

**[00:07:45]** When I tell someone I do trends, the typical response is,

**[00:07:49]** trends don't concern me at all, I'm not interested in trends,

**[00:07:52]** they don't apply to me.

**[00:07:54]** And they mean that they didn't buy those Adidas Samba sneakers.

**[00:07:57]** But trends really concern everyone around us.

**[00:08:01]** Because trends are the result of what's happening in the world.

**[00:08:05]** Trends are the result of what's happening in culture, politics,

**[00:08:08]** in the economy, in society.

**[00:08:10]** It's not something we're separated from, something we can distance ourselves from.

**[00:08:14]** But it's something that results from what's going on around us.

**[00:08:18]** I know that some of you listening are saying,

**[00:08:21]** Pavlína, that's good, but don't you have some examples?

**[00:08:23]** So I have examples.

**[00:08:25]** Let's go back to 2016.

**[00:08:28]** In 2016, the biggest trend forecasting agency WGSN

**[00:08:33]** predicted that each of us would have houseplants at home.

**[00:08:37]** That especially monsteras would become very popular.

**[00:08:40]** As you know, this prediction came true quite well.

**[00:08:43]** So let's go back to 2016

**[00:08:46]** and I'll show you why in 2016 they managed to predict

**[00:08:51]** that we would have houseplants at home based on this list.

**[00:08:55]** In 2016, Trump was first elected.

**[00:08:59]** We learned very hard what the word fake news means

**[00:09:03]** and Brexit also happened.

**[00:09:05]** Aleppo fell then, and a wave of Syrian refugees started to flood us.

**[00:09:10]** And not just us.

**[00:09:11]** And Greece went bankrupt then.

**[00:09:13]** We read the news and felt like we never wanted to go outside again.

**[00:09:17]** That the world around us was collapsing.

**[00:09:19]** That it couldn't get any worse.

**[00:09:21]** But worse was yet to come.

**[00:09:23]** Then it got even worse, but at that time we thought it couldn't get any worse.

**[00:09:26]** At the same time, we started talking about sustainability for the first time.

**[00:09:29]** It definitely wasn't mainstream yet.

**[00:09:31]** But at the same time, there was a big scandal about Volkswagen cheating on emissions.

**[00:09:37]** And suddenly we were thinking, well, I hope we find water on Mars

**[00:09:41]** and that soon we'll be able to scrub there.

**[00:09:43]** And at the same time, the so-called gig economy appeared.

**[00:09:47]** Today, 40% of Americans have freelance jobs

**[00:09:52]** and primarily work in the gig economy.

**[00:09:54]** 64% of Americans with full-time jobs also have some side job.

**[00:10:00]** Some side hustle where they earn money, and so we started moving to cities as part of this.

**[00:10:06]** We started coming to where the work is, the freelance work.

**[00:10:11]** And that's why our rent prices have risen. Do you know how we deal with the huge year-on-year rent increases,

**[00:10:18]** that's when it started to rise. And besides that, we started enjoying life.

**[00:10:23]** The average age of first-time mothers was 1.30 years, and suddenly we found ourselves living in rental apartments,

**[00:10:32]** doing freelance work, and living in cities.

**[00:10:37]** Going back to 2016, the primary aesthetic was that Scandinavian hygge,

**[00:10:44]** with beige everywhere, cozy places.

**[00:10:49]** We started going to yoga for the first time, and in 2016 only cool people had Instagram. Now everyone has it.

**[00:10:55]** So what did this mean? It meant a great foundation for houseplants.

**[00:11:01]** Houseplants were a perfect answer to city living, where we missed nature.

**[00:11:06]** They were a great solution for living alone in a rental where the landlord forbade cats and dogs,

**[00:11:13]** but you still needed to talk to something alive, so you talked to your monstera.

**[00:11:17]** Aspirational wellness was the story that having plants at home might help you breathe better and feel better overall.

**[00:11:26]** And to complement the interior, which we started photographing on Instagram for the first time,

**[00:11:30]** in that beige interior we needed some pop of color, something eye-catching.

**[00:11:35]** The result was that spending on plants grew by 200% in three years,

**[00:11:40]** the book Pokojovky became an instant bestseller,

**[00:11:43]** Instagram accounts like Boys with Plants appeared, from which I stole this picture,

**[00:11:48]** and startups like Greenest Company emerged,

**[00:11:51]** and Plastia started producing cool flowerpots featured on design blogs.

**[00:11:55]** Suddenly, this was an ecosystem that gave rise to huge startups, products, and campaigns.

**[00:12:03]** And it's not just this. We were able to predict in the same way things like,

**[00:12:08]** that today we eat ramen, that you put oat milk in coffee,

**[00:12:12]** that we listen to podcasts, wear wide jeans, just as you wrote, or houseplants.

**[00:12:17]** And it's because behind each of these things is a huge ecosystem,

**[00:12:22]** which allowed us to make this prediction.

**[00:12:25]** So the first trick that will help you is always to look at something trending around you,

**[00:12:30]** like these thermoses,

**[00:12:34]** and ask yourself what might be behind it, why exactly this is trending.

**[00:12:39]** And now, if I ask you, and maybe I'll ask the audience here,

**[00:12:43]** come on, come on, be useful since you're already sitting here.

**[00:12:47]** Is there anything that comes to mind why this thermos is trending right now?

**[00:12:52]** It can be anything.

**[00:12:54]** Kareda again.

**[00:12:56]** Kareda again. Actually, being Karedy is important in trends,

**[00:13:01]** because it means you look different from the rest of your feed.

**[00:13:05]** Great, we're heading in the right direction.

**[00:13:07]** Anything else?

**[00:13:09]** It's controversial.

**[00:13:11]** Exactly, it causes some polarization, which means,

**[00:13:14]** it has that flywheel effect, that people start talking about it.

**[00:13:17]** Great. What else?

**[00:13:19]** It's very expensive, which means it becomes a status symbol.

**[00:13:23]** Anything that can become a status symbol is great,

**[00:13:26]** that's why Lesky skis cost a thousand, when you go to Sephora,

**[00:13:29]** when you go out.

**[00:13:31]** So, anything else?

**[00:13:33]** And louder?

**[00:13:37]** Yeah, it's visible.

**[00:13:39]** Definitely visible.

**[00:13:41]** At the same time, it's part of a trend coming to us,

**[00:13:44]** which is that these short-term trends often come from TikTok today,

**[00:13:48]** and TikTok trends are often a cosplay of something happening in LA.

**[00:13:52]** This thermos makes perfect sense when you spend most of the day driving,

**[00:13:56]** so it fits perfectly into the center console.

**[00:13:59]** But we actually imitate influencers who are in LA,

**[00:14:02]** and try to do the same here.

**[00:14:04]** At the same time, other things that are,

**[00:14:06]** this thermos can work because we're talking about sustainability,

**[00:14:09]** which means we don't want to carry around just plastic bottles anymore.

**[00:14:13]** We're talking about climate change, and that's why a Hydra suddenly became a status symbol,

**[00:14:17]** and why we want to be cool with a thermos.

**[00:14:20]** At the same time, we're talking about wellness, which means,

**[00:14:23]** it's important to be seen taking care of your health,

**[00:14:26]** to keep up your hydration routine.

**[00:14:28]** And behind every trend is exactly this kind of ecosystem of reasons,

**[00:14:32]** why this one took off.

**[00:14:34]** And look, those of you who wrote protein,

**[00:14:39]** or wide jeans, why exactly do you think they're trending?

**[00:14:44]** Make this your homework.

**[00:14:46]** And just like today, try walking around all day,

**[00:14:49]** watch people, you'll be amazed at people, right?

**[00:14:52]** Blame me if someone looks at you.

**[00:14:55]** Pavlína said that.

**[00:14:57]** And please, watch and ask yourself why people are wearing this right now,

**[00:15:00]** why this works right now.

**[00:15:02]** And try to build a story around it.

**[00:15:05]** And that's exactly the skillset we look for around us.

**[00:15:10]** This story sounded really nice, but there's a huge, huge but.

**[00:15:16]** We were able to predict all these things quite far in advance.

**[00:15:20]** They say we predicted houseplants back in 2016,

**[00:15:24]** and we actually lived quite well because of it.

**[00:15:26]** Even in 2016, the biggest trend forecasting agency WGSN said,

**[00:15:30]** they could predict trends seven years ahead with 95% accuracy.

**[00:15:36]** That means when you bought a trend report from them,

**[00:15:40]** which said something, your company had enough time not only to prepare,

**[00:15:44]** but also to be pretty sure it would work out perfectly.

**[00:15:48]** Today, we can predict trends one year ahead with 80% accuracy.

**[00:15:53]** That means we've had a huge loss over the last eight years.

**[00:15:58]** Why did this happen?

**[00:16:00]** It's because the classic trend adoption cycle has sped up a lot.

**[00:16:06]** For a long time, we saw a Chanel show in Paris,

**[00:16:11]** six months later Vogue published about it,

**[00:16:15]** six months after that Czech L wrote about it,

**[00:16:18]** six months later we saw those tops in H&M,

**[00:16:22]** and six months later my mom called me asking if this was cool now.

**[00:16:26]** But what came next is a huge acceleration.

**[00:16:30]** Whether it's technological acceleration, which throws

**[00:16:33]** technology at us at a speed we've never experienced before,

**[00:16:36]** or the acceleration of media bombardment.

**[00:16:40]** In her time, Audrey Hepburn made 1-2 films a year,

**[00:16:44]** Oprah Winfrey made 182 episodes of her talk show a year,

**[00:16:49]** Kim Kardashian posts 600 times a year on Instagram,

**[00:16:53]** and my favorite Victoria Perez uploads 22,000 TikToks a year.

**[00:16:58]** That means we have more content than we've ever had in life.

**[00:17:02]** And what happens is that we go through this cycle in days. So Chanel has a show in Paris,

**[00:17:06]** first, streamers sit and post it directly on Instagram,

**[00:17:10]** SHEIN can copy those products and deliver them to the market

**[00:17:14]** SHEIN is able to copy those products and bring them to market

**[00:17:19]** within 48 hours, after my mom reads about it,

**[00:17:24]** and that same evening she calls me asking if it's embarrassing or not.

**[00:17:27]** So we keep going through this over and over again.

**[00:17:31]** The result is that as trend forecasters, we talk about how

**[00:17:35]** trends have completely disappeared from the conversation and have been replaced only by hypes.

**[00:17:39]** Because nothing really sticks around here anymore.

**[00:17:43]** Nothing has the longevity to keep us interested.

**[00:17:47]** Because we are quickly saturated by having seen it everywhere.

**[00:17:50]** We get bored, it’s no longer good.

**[00:17:53]** And the result is what happens to us later in companies,

**[00:17:56]** that anything trending is treated as if it were a trend.

**[00:18:00]** Meaning anything that has the characteristics of a hype,

**[00:18:04]** we say it will probably still be around for a while.

**[00:18:07]** And that’s why we build strategies around the metaverse.

**[00:18:10]** Or things like that, which you’ve probably experienced in companies in recent years.

**[00:18:15]** Because we feel like that’s it.

**[00:18:19]** One result of losing trends

**[00:18:23]** is that we lost the monoculture.

**[00:18:26]** As trend forecasters, we often say

**[00:18:29]** that society can no longer create a Madonna.

**[00:18:33]** Because there is nothing that permeates society anymore.

**[00:18:37]** When I was growing up, the average household had just one screen.

**[00:18:43]** It was the screen where at 8 p.m. we sat down and Titanic was on.

**[00:18:47]** We watched it as a whole family, and the next day at school,

**[00:18:51]** my teacher knew what happened in Titanic and who Leonardo DiCaprio was.

**[00:18:55]** All my classmates knew, and so did my parents.

**[00:18:58]** So we had topics we could talk about.

**[00:19:02]** The average household now has 13 screens, each showing a completely different feed.

**[00:19:07]** And we don’t know what’s happening on the other feeds.

**[00:19:10]** So it’s very hard to find topics we all share.

**[00:19:14]** We actually think about what to talk about while waiting in line for the bathroom.

**[00:19:17]** Like right here, or exactly at the breakfast you just had a moment ago.

**[00:19:22]** And it’s because society has broken into bubbles.

**[00:19:27]** That’s why bubbles have completely stopped working for marketers,

**[00:19:32]** because we can no longer say that all 35-year-old women are interested in the same things.

**[00:19:38]** Or that all teenagers do the same things.

**[00:19:42]** In fact, the average 35-year-old woman can look like this, this, or this,

**[00:19:46]** as shown in these images.

**[00:19:48]** So, when I talk about it often, I say that we no longer have a single trend.

**[00:19:53]** And in fact, any trend reports you buy will lie to you a lot,

**[00:19:57]** promising that there is one single global...

**[00:20:00]** trend for everyone. That hasn't been true for a long time. Today, we have many subcultures where we map individual trends happening.

**[00:20:10]** I know I just told you that following trends doesn't make sense, that it's all just hype and so on. But I have for you

**[00:20:20]** in the next 40 minutes a demonstration that there are some tricks to help you recognize that something will last, that there is something

**[00:20:28]** you can actually work with in your company and stick to it. The first thing is to follow the mentioned megatrends.

**[00:20:37]** Megatrends are huge societal changes we can rely on. We know the population will age

**[00:20:44]** even in ten years, that technology will accelerate in ten years, that urbanization will continue to be true in ten years.

**[00:20:51]** All these huge megatrends create the actual trends. Let me give you an example. Every sixth person globally will be over 65 in 2050,

**[00:21:01]** in Europe it will be in 2030. Every fifth European will be over 65. What does this mean in practice?

**[00:21:12]** Maybe we'll see Tinder for retirees. Or specialized gyms and personal trainers

**[00:21:20]** who understand how to work with aging bodies. Or internships and training programs when you're 60,

**[00:21:27]** so you won't only start training programs at 25, but also at 45 and 65. Because the average person today changes careers

**[00:21:36]** 7 times in their life, and we expect this number to double by 2030. At the same time, new robots will appear,

**[00:21:45]** caring for the aging population. According to current DENSU research, one third of people would let AI care for their

**[00:21:53]** aging parents without any supervision. This means what awaits us might be automated caregivers

**[00:22:00]** or something similar. And at the same time, startups like Uber will appear, delivering caregivers so that when you care for your

**[00:22:08]** grandmother, you can take a break for a few hours. So you just order one and that's it. It also means redefining clothing.

**[00:22:16]** One of my clients is now working on redefining bras so they fit you at a certain age. And actually, it's huge

**[00:22:24]** trends lying on the ground here that we often don't even notice. Like the aging population. Did you know that the silver economy currently makes up

**[00:22:33]** a third of Europe's GDP, yet every brief I've received in the last 15 years targeted only the young and dynamic.

**[00:22:42]** One billion people are going through menopause or have already gone through it. That means a huge market we often ignore,

**[00:22:52]** but they are coming to us. These are business opportunities for us as companies. So what awaits us in the slides now,

**[00:23:00]** is that we have selected one megatrend for you, and I'm curious what trends you think it will bring. What comes to mind?

**[00:23:08]** We have political polarization, the fact that more and more we live in bubbles, not understanding each other, not knowing what to talk about at the Christmas table.

**[00:23:15]** So what trends will it bring? Try to write anything that comes to mind.

**[00:23:21]** Vulgarity is great. Right now we're dealing with what's called the rage economy, because the only thing that breaks through the bubbles is that we're all angry at someone together.

**[00:23:50]** For example, the campaign Tak moc by Filip Turek works, or Love Island works because we can all get upset about how stupid people can be when they do something.

**[00:24:02]** So I love great vulgarities. And conversational cards on the other hand, any effort to overcome those bubbles and polarization.

**[00:24:13]** Because we're trying to meet offline, maybe have a running club, book club, any moments when we meet.

**[00:24:21]** Disinterest in public affairs is great. I'm kind of tired of polarization that I feel it doesn't make sense anymore.

**[00:24:29]** Board games are positive again. I like that it's positive, that there's not just darkness in the answers. Exactly board games, any moments that help us connect more across.

**[00:24:40]** Psychological tests for politicians. I support all your answers, but some are a bit unlikely.

**[00:24:49]** But great, exactly growth in merchandise sales. That political parties are suddenly becoming something like fandoms.

**[00:24:57]** We see it depopulated in America, that people want to identify with it. Great, exactly this.

**[00:25:03]** Such a great trick to do at your company. Go through the list of those megatrends.

**[00:25:08]** There are many reports that analyze these megatrends in detail, which are publicly available for download.

**[00:25:14]** And you can just ask yourself what it will do to our company when people start moving into cities.

**[00:25:19]** What it will do to our company when people become more polarized, etc.

**[00:25:23]** The second trick to looking into the future is to look around you.

**[00:25:28]** There is a Japanese word called kukivojomu.

**[00:25:32]** And kukivojomu means reading the atmosphere in the room, sensing what is happening around you.

**[00:25:38]** And that's exactly what you do if you are a trend forecaster.

**[00:25:42]** You enter a room and start staring at people. I really do stare.

**[00:25:47]** I look at people's phones and how they are dressed.

**[00:25:51]** And I basically observe people the whole time. Because the moment you observe them,

**[00:25:55]** you start looking for patterns. Something starts to pop up,

**[00:25:59]** something might look different, something looks the same, and so on.

**[00:26:03]** And what you typically look for are waves.

**[00:26:07]** Because for us, as companies, it's important to understand when a wave starts to rise.

**[00:26:13]** And by observing the people around you, you start to notice

**[00:26:18]** that a wave is beginning to rise. And the ideal world we want to reach

**[00:26:23]** is like when you go surfing. You need to prepare your board exactly when the wave you chose starts to rise,

**[00:26:28]** and you get on it

**[00:26:33]** at the moment the wave reaches its peak. Only then can you surf it.

**[00:26:38]** That's why trends work when companies jump on them in time,

**[00:26:43]** but not too early. And at that moment, we can surf.

**[00:26:47]** There are things that help us identify these wave beginnings.

**[00:26:53]** They can be contradictions, oxymorons, inversions, something strange

**[00:26:59]** and that doesn't make much sense. I want to highly recommend this book and newsletter,

**[00:27:04]** and Ana Anděleč regularly writes about these things.

**[00:27:08]** When I say contradictions, what do I mean? Typically, for a trend to have energy,

**[00:27:13]** it needs to be oxymoronic. On one hand, in the context of sustainability,

**[00:27:19]** we've been talking about Greta Thunberg, Fridays for the Future in recent years,

**[00:27:23]** how 8 out of 10 customers care about sustainability when shopping.

**[00:27:27]** And on the other hand, we have She In, Temu. And we look at it and ask,

**[00:27:33]** how is this possible, how does it make sense? It really doesn't make sense,

**[00:27:37]** that these two things exist, they are in contrast. But precisely because

**[00:27:41]** they exist in contrast, they have energy. It's exactly something

**[00:27:45]** that drives them forward. It's the fight between these two things,

**[00:27:49]** which shows us that it's a trend and worth paying attention to.

**[00:27:55]** The second thing that shows you this is that contrast always comes.

**[00:28:01]** After something reaches a certain peak, for example, we see now on social media,

**[00:28:05]** that the so-called clean girl movement has peaked, meaning I go to Pilates,

**[00:28:11]** I try to take care of myself, I have houraring, I drink matcha, all sorts of things,

**[00:28:15]** exactly, I take protein. So the time comes when it has peaked,

**[00:28:19]** I see it everywhere, and then a huge contrast comes.

**[00:28:23]** Suddenly comes that 'fuck it, I don't want to care about it anymore'.

**[00:28:27]** Maybe I want to go to a party instead, and maybe I don't know if it makes sense

**[00:28:32]** to work from 9 to 5, maybe I'd rather build a crypto startup.

**[00:28:36]** It's like suddenly, a huge darkness comes to us

**[00:28:40]** and a change in what is happening in society. That means another trick,

**[00:28:44]** to find out when the wave will start rising is to look at

**[00:28:48]** what is around us a lot right now, what you feel has already peaked,

**[00:28:52]** what you feel you see absolutely everywhere. For example, if you look today

**[00:28:58]** at teenagers, almost all teenagers wear those wide jeans,

**[00:29:02]** which means we know skinny jeans will come this year.

**[00:29:06]** Because it has already peaked. We already know that the contrasting behavior will come from this to that. So my question,

**[00:29:10]** now I'll open it to the slide again, is what oxymorons do you see around you,

**[00:29:14]** what maybe doesn't make sense, or what is suddenly very abundant

**[00:29:18]** around us.

**[00:29:23]** AI. Exactly. Perfect.

**[00:29:35]** Because AI is suddenly everywhere and because of that we start

**[00:29:39]** to explore ludic behavior and say, maybe it could work

**[00:29:43]** without AI. Maybe what we miss here is humanity. We start thinking

**[00:29:47]** about moving to the forest and surviving there.

**[00:29:51]** There is a lot of ugliness, like those thermoses, I get it.

**[00:29:55]** versus motorcyclists, great, I think we see this dynamic, healthy lifestyle, there is plenty of it everywhere and therefore we start dealing with

**[00:30:00]** whether it's worth it, like maybe enjoying food instead of just optimizing it, great, always on the phone versus dumb phone friend,

**[00:30:07]** perfect, this, yesterday I trained teenagers and all the teenagers told me their classmates have those old Nokias,

**[00:30:15]** like the one my dad still has, so that's the coolest thing right now, or offline cafes, or something where you can put your laptop.

**[00:30:24]** Something like what my dad still has, that's the most like now, or offline cafes, or something where you have your laptop.

**[00:30:32]** Influencers, exactly, we're totally fed up with influencers and we're figuring out how to replace them as a concept.

**[00:30:43]** Super, super, exactly that.

**[00:30:45]** The second thing that helps us search and find out how these waves come in is exactly this,

**[00:30:52]** what I call the snake that swallowed the elephant from The Little Prince, that graph.

**[00:30:57]** And it's exactly the story of how we go through the adoption of a trend.

**[00:31:03]** Typically at the start are innovators, people you'd never think are cool.

**[00:31:08]** I always say a typical innovator is Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, definitely the last person you'd call cool.

**[00:31:15]** Then there are early adopters, the first people who test it, typically someone like Petr Mára,

**[00:31:20]** or someone like that, who among your friends was the first to buy crypto,

**[00:31:25]** they come first with some apps and say it's amazing, it will change everything.

**[00:31:30]** Usually it doesn't change everything, but they're the most excited at the start.

**[00:31:34]** Then the early majority is the first moment when we start to see business potential in things.

**[00:31:40]** That means economic newspapers or Forbes start writing about it.

**[00:31:45]** And actually, for the first time, we discover if the thing will reach the mainstream.

**[00:31:49]** You recognize the late majority when it reaches the OC Arkady mall and you see it in stores.

**[00:31:55]** That means it's just before it dies, before it becomes embarrassing.

**[00:31:59]** Once you see it in ANK, please don't buy it, because that's exactly,

**[00:32:03]** that's when you don't want it anymore. And then there are laggards, people who have worn Jagr jerseys since the 90s and never stopped.

**[00:32:08]** And this is exactly what these mean for us,

**[00:32:13]** we map where the trends are.

**[00:32:17]** And what we want to watch are the early adopters and innovators.

**[00:32:23]** Because we know the trend will probably move on from there.

**[00:32:27]** That means, for example, the best agencies in the world have scouts.

**[00:32:33]** Everywhere. And these scouts go to factories that innovate materials,

**[00:32:39]** or they watch skateboarders. Always watch skateboarders.

**[00:32:43]** That's a great place to study what kind of pants style will be worn.

**[00:32:47]** They always have it first. Or they look at exactly what's happening in Silicon Valley.

**[00:32:53]** Or they look at cities that are cool. Nike has identified ten cities globally,

**[00:32:58]** where it tracks trends. Because you know these are the cities where trends typically start.

**[00:33:02]** It will be London, New York, but also Seoul, Tokyo.

**[00:33:06]** And this again. For example, in my company I have set up exactly

**[00:33:10]** trend scouts all over the world who write to me about what cool girls in Copenhagen are doing.

**[00:33:16]** And thanks to that, I know we're stopping wearing leggings and starting to wear wide pants for exercise.

**[00:33:22]** And this. That means I'm interested now in what you see around you,

**[00:33:30]** we didn't get the Slido through, no problem, but think about what signals you see around you.

**[00:33:35]** What are the things that only cool people around you do.

**[00:33:39]** There's something here, and I'll ask the audience again since we don't have Slido.

**[00:33:43]** Is there something that only cool people around you do, and typically it might be that,

**[00:33:48]** they suddenly started going camping, or started living in shared housing,

**[00:33:55]** even though they're 40. Is there something cool people around you do?

**[00:34:01]** It can be anything. Are they happy?

**[00:34:07]** I think this is a really radical concept nowadays.

**[00:34:12]** Great, we have Slido. Parental leave, perfect, abstinence, great,

**[00:34:18]** this is exactly one of the signals we see, which is already quite far,

**[00:34:22]** but still. Being able to work whenever I want has become a new status symbol.

**[00:34:27]** The status symbol is no longer a Ferrari,

**[00:34:31]** but that I can not work on a Wednesday morning and be with my kids.

**[00:34:36]** Great, walking on Tuesday, greetings to Martin Vymětal here,

**[00:34:40]** walking up there, great, exactly this, that suddenly I have nature,

**[00:34:45]** you see everyone wearing Salomon shoes even in the city, withdrawing from society,

**[00:34:51]** yes, that's exactly the new status symbol, that I don't have to be part of

**[00:34:56]** this hustle culture around us.

**[00:35:00]** Running is already quite mainstream, gym too, I think, but great,

**[00:35:04]** I think these are really nice things, so again, we have another thing,

**[00:35:08]** we always look for signals around us.

**[00:35:11]** The third thing that helps us look around,

**[00:35:15]** is to watch young people, because typically young people are at the start

**[00:35:19]** of the adoption curve, they tend to be early adopters.

**[00:35:22]** I'm not really interested in Gen Z as such,

**[00:35:26]** but I'm interested in the trends they bring. I'm interested in what they actually do,

**[00:35:30]** because we know that it will probably come to the mainstream later.

**[00:35:34]** My favorite journalist Taylor Lawrence, who previously worked

**[00:35:38]** For example, in the New York Times or Washington Post, they say, I write about technology trends.

**[00:35:42]** And that's why I write about young people's behavior. And that's exactly why I look at young people.

**[00:35:46]** So the question again is,

**[00:35:50]** what interests young people now, what interests Generation Z,

**[00:35:54]** because we know it will then come into the mainstream.

**[00:35:58]** Typically, they started running clubs, which we now have everywhere.

**[00:36:02]** Nostalgia for a time before the internet.

**[00:36:06]** Gaming. Gaming is huge right now. Three billion people in the world are gamers.

**[00:36:10]** And the discussion about mental health again. It first started with teenagers,

**[00:36:14]** before it reached the mainstream, where we see it now.

**[00:36:18]** So my question to you is, what do you think young people are interested in now?

**[00:36:22]** And therefore, what is coming to us.

**[00:36:26]** Or how they behave differently.

**[00:36:36]** So. They are interested in politics. Great.

**[00:36:40]** I think we have a new wave of engagement. I just returned from Slovakia,

**[00:36:44]** and many young people there started doing politics because of what they see around them.

**[00:36:48]** They are interested in the military. We see huge,

**[00:36:52]** huge interest in that.

**[00:36:56]** One explanation, and these are American numbers,

**[00:37:00]** is that they found out it's free gym when you join the military.

**[00:37:04]** So basically great. They save money and still get to lift kettlebells. Awesome.

**[00:37:08]** They don't want to be on social media, they are leaving TikTok. We see the numbers globally,

**[00:37:12]** but young people are leaving massively.

**[00:37:16]** They idealize the 90s, the early internet era, which is why,

**[00:37:20]** Tumblr is coming back now, a platform I used 20 years ago.

**[00:37:24]** Financial independence, retire early.

**[00:37:28]** Great. Exactly that, thinking about how to secure yourself as soon as possible,

**[00:37:32]** so you don't have to deal with this at all.

**[00:37:36]** Apathy. We see apathy overall.

**[00:37:40]** Great. Really nice things. And all of this, we know,

**[00:37:44]** will later move into the mainstream.

**[00:37:48]** Another thing, now almost the penultimate,

**[00:37:52]** that will help you is to follow politics and political topics.

**[00:37:56]** As I said, political topics are often the source of trends.

**[00:38:00]** So when we look at the biggest current political topics, it will be things like housing shortage,

**[00:38:04]** the rise of the far right, security,

**[00:38:08]** which we constantly deal with, or climate change.

**[00:38:12]** And what comes out of that as trends is exactly one,

**[00:38:16]** which reacts to the huge price increases.

**[00:38:20]** which, for example, responds to the huge price increases.

**[00:38:24]** A third of European families currently cannot afford a week-long

**[00:38:28]** vacation in their home country. That means a third of families can't afford

**[00:38:32]** to rent a cottage by the lake for a week and go there.

**[00:38:36]** And this is the idea that we're dealing with high prices, but it's not just

**[00:38:40]** the bottom ten thousand; it's actually almost everyone.

**[00:38:44]** And what does that bring with it? Three trend things right away.

**[00:38:48]** First, it brought an increase in quiet luxury.

**[00:38:52]** That when you have money, you don't want to show it off openly,

**[00:38:56]** because you have some self-reflection that, no, everyone has money.

**[00:39:00]** That's why logos are hidden and secret, which will change for us now.

**[00:39:04]** The second thing it brought into culture,

**[00:39:08]** is that we want to say that if someone is rich, they actually have it bad.

**[00:39:12]** That's why we watch White Lotus, Succession, Billions,

**[00:39:16]** because we want to convince ourselves

**[00:39:20]** that having money isn't that great.

**[00:39:24]** And the last thing is that even if I don't have money,

**[00:39:28]** I still want to feel like I'm experiencing some luxury.

**[00:39:32]** Because it's my feeling that I'm going to a Michelin restaurant,

**[00:39:36]** but it only cost 129 crowns.

**[00:39:40]** That's why you now see L'Oréal,

**[00:39:44]** which costs two hundred crowns but positions itself as a super luxury brand.

**[00:39:48]** You see a lot of these kinds of tricks.

**[00:39:52]** DAF is one of those brands that creates the impression that

**[00:39:56]** I'm in huge luxury but I can't afford it.

**[00:40:00]** My favorite collaboration in Czechia that came from this situation is Hornbach,

**[00:40:07]** which collaborated with the duo Herman Souffel, who won Grand Design of the year,

**[00:40:14]** and they have lamps that normally cost 50,000 crowns. We could never afford them.

**[00:40:20]** And they made a collaboration with Hornbach, where they created a YouTube tutorial on how to make this lamp

**[00:40:26]** yourself at home. You just need to buy concrete and nails or whatever they're called at Hornbach,

**[00:40:33]** for about 2,000 crowns and then just make the lamp at home. And it's exactly that,

**[00:40:39]** you want design. We know that even if you worry about money, you want beautiful things at home,

**[00:40:44]** and we can offer you this. One of my favorite examples is the Canadian chain Pitsi,

**[00:40:50]** which, when the global inflation debate came up, signed a contract

**[00:40:57]** where they fixed the price of Pitsi for a year. They said they wouldn't raise it.

**[00:41:03]** A totally great, super successful campaign, lots of emails to the marketing database, we love it, let's go on.

**[00:41:08]** And actually, it's great to work with these feelings. I exactly think,

**[00:41:13]** that now there will be many more brands. We'll see how they react to the housing crisis,

**[00:41:17]** the feeling that some of us will never be able to afford housing, a mortgage, and so on.

**[00:41:22]** The last thing that will help you track which trends are coming to us,

**[00:41:28]** is to follow science and technology. GLP-1 are drugs like Ozempic or Munjaro,

**[00:41:36]** which I think you've heard of. You take an injection, stop eating, lose weight, pure magic.

**[00:41:42]** What does this bring to our discussion about trends? That our products are changing,

**[00:41:50]** but also the ideal of beauty. Nestlé launched a special food line last year,

**[00:41:55]** which you eat while taking these injections because you actually need increased protein.

**[00:42:02]** Another protein debate you see everywhere now is directly linked

**[00:42:07]** to these injections, because once you start eating, you need to consume as much protein as possible.

**[00:42:12]** At the same time, we see many things promising weight loss even without these injections.

**[00:42:19]** And suddenly, thinness is back in fashion. After years of celebrating female curves,

**[00:42:25]** now part of looking good is being thin.

**[00:42:31]** I think whenever I want to understand what aspiration means in society, I look at the Kardashians.

**[00:42:37]** And that's exactly the illustration of what it is.

**[00:42:40]** We see this already reflected in business results.

**[00:42:45]** Walmart's sales dropped because we are spending less money.

**[00:42:50]** At the same time, many brands acquire new customers because when you lose weight,

**[00:42:54]** you no longer want to use the brands you were associated with when you were overweight.

**[00:42:59]** So new customers invent what new car they'll drive, which restaurants they'll visit, etc.

**[00:43:06]** And we also see that GLP-1 users typically leave their partners they were with while overweight,

**[00:43:13]** and start dating new people.

**[00:43:16]** This means we have a completely new influx of people coming to tenders, etc.

**[00:43:21]** And outwardly it looks like just one drug, but it really changes huge customer behavior.

**[00:43:28]** We have the last 15 minutes, so let's look at what to watch out for,

**[00:43:36]** when you read about trends and dig a bit deeper,

**[00:43:40]** which I hope today motivated you to do.

**[00:43:44]** The first thing is that when you see any trends, they are often only for some people.

**[00:43:50]** I already mentioned that they are definitely not for everyone.

**[00:43:54]** Often, it's a trend that only early adopters see so far

**[00:43:58]** and hasn't reached the regular customers who might shop at the Chodob shopping center

**[00:44:03]** or Arkády yet. They might not understand it at all.

**[00:44:06]** That means, as a brand, I always need to be aware of

**[00:44:10]** where my customers are on the adoption curve so the trend feels cool and functional to them.

**[00:44:16]** The second thing is that maybe the trend is happening only in some bubble

**[00:44:20]** and another bubble has never heard of it.

**[00:44:23]** Two examples. If we take the top ten TikTok trends

**[00:44:28]** we saw last year, like Kotyčkor,

**[00:44:32]** Barbiekor, and all sorts of things, if you follow online like I do,

**[00:44:36]** you've heard of them, but at the same time half of our customers

**[00:44:40]** have never heard of them. Even though when you live on the internet,

**[00:44:43]** it's easy to fall into thinking everyone has heard of them.

**[00:44:47]** And from the half who have heard of them, only a quarter

**[00:44:51]** ever participated in the trend. Ever thought about

**[00:44:55]** buying something related to that trend.

**[00:44:58]** That means we often have this media buzz around us,

**[00:45:02]** that all of us, the customers, care about Kotyčkor,

**[00:45:05]** but in reality, the actual response is very small.

**[00:45:09]** The second thing related to bubbles, which I find very positive,

**[00:45:14]** honestly, is that everything is cool, just in some other bubble.

**[00:45:20]** So if someone tells you you're lame

**[00:45:23]** because you wear skinny jeans, you just need to find the bubble

**[00:45:26]** where skinny jeans are cool. Like that.

**[00:45:29]** There are just different bubbles. That means everything works.

**[00:45:33]** And if you feel your product is lame to someone,

**[00:45:36]** there is a bubble where it is very cool and great.

**[00:45:39]** So I look for the niches where it will work.

**[00:45:44]** And once I find my niche, I want to study it very well.

**[00:45:48]** I want to know what they think right now.

**[00:45:51]** I work with several smaller brands

**[00:45:54]** that have WhatsApp groups with their top customers

**[00:45:58]** and every week they ask them what they find cool right now,

**[00:46:01]** what they are watching on TV.

**[00:46:03]** Thanks to that, they create their own trend report,

**[00:46:06]** which is much more relevant than any other trend report you might read.

**[00:46:13]** The second thing is that often trends come to us in some bubble,

**[00:46:18]** which exactly reflects what is happening in society and culture.

**[00:46:22]** It's no coincidence that Microsoft and Apple were founded at the same time.

**[00:46:27]** It's because Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were born at the same time.

**[00:46:31]** And when we went to kindergarten, the first Montessori kindergartens were emerging.

**[00:46:35]** And when we went to university, computer science

**[00:46:40]** was becoming a subject at the university.

**[00:46:42]** That's why many big companies like Oracle, Microsoft, Apple were founded at that time.

**[00:46:48]** When I look at when some organizations were founded,

**[00:46:52]** like Chequitas and the marketing girls or Luna,

**[00:46:55]** we all started around the same time.

**[00:46:57]** That's exactly why I'm interested in catching the wave and looking,

**[00:47:01]** to see where the big market shift is happening right now.

**[00:47:05]** Another thing is that sometimes a trend takes a long time to become reality.

**[00:47:12]** I really like Gartner's Hype Cycle, which clearly indicates,

**[00:47:16]** how much longer it will take for a trend to really arrive somewhere.

**[00:47:20]** This is from 2022, when Metaverse was trending.

**[00:47:24]** If you look at it, it's at the very bottom,

**[00:47:28]** but at the same time, there's a note that it will take more than 10 years

**[00:47:32]** to reach some real use.

**[00:47:35]** And we often forget that footnote about more than 10 years.

**[00:47:39]** We live in a world where technologies are coming at us faster

**[00:47:44]** than ever before.

**[00:47:46]** And each of these technologies promises that it will change everything right now.

**[00:47:51]** How we buy, how we think, how we record.

**[00:47:54]** What never happens is that it changes everything immediately.

**[00:47:58]** It changes a lot of things, but not right away, not this week.

**[00:48:02]** But we are totally impatient and expect it to happen.

**[00:48:05]** And we do the same with trends.

**[00:48:08]** My favorite example on this topic is suitcases.

**[00:48:12]** I'll tell you a story about suitcases, I really like it.

**[00:48:16]** Suitcases as such were invented around 1900.

**[00:48:20]** Around 1900.

**[00:48:22]** By 1930 at the latest, we wrote them off as a useless hype.

**[00:48:27]** Because we started having cars, and cars have trunks.

**[00:48:31]** So why would we need suitcases?

**[00:48:34]** Suitcases came back in the 1950s with the rise of air travel,

**[00:48:38]** when we started traveling a lot more.

**[00:48:41]** But only in the 1970s did we add wheels to them.

**[00:48:44]** It took us 70 years to add wheels to suitcases.

**[00:48:48]** That's the level of innovation.

**[00:48:50]** And then it took another 20 years before we started taking those wheeled suitcases seriously.

**[00:48:55]** It was because for 20 years, wheeled suitcases were considered

**[00:48:57]** something only weak women used.

**[00:49:01]** Like real men just carry their bags by hand.

**[00:49:05]** We thought it was just for women.

**[00:49:09]** In the 90s, commercial airline pilots

**[00:49:11]** started using wheeled suitcases.

**[00:49:15]** And we realized that the words wheeled suitcase and masculinity

**[00:49:17]** can go in the same sentence. That we can handle it.

**[00:49:20]** And it took more years until globalization came,

**[00:49:23]** mass production in China, etc.,

**[00:49:26]** until suddenly this suitcase became something

**[00:49:29]** I want to follow on Instagram and really wish for at Christmas.

**[00:49:32]** And here we tell a story that's 125 years old,

**[00:49:36]** before we built that love brand worth having.

**[00:49:40]** And we always expect this to happen in a week.

**[00:49:44]** Like next quarter,

**[00:49:47]** because we just planned it that way.

**[00:49:50]** But often the trend takes a while

**[00:49:52]** to spread through the rest of the world.

**[00:49:55]** Trends change.

**[00:49:58]** We often say the same word, but it changes drastically.

**[00:50:00]** Athleisure, if we talked about it three years ago,

**[00:50:05]** I would show you perfectly matched pastel leggings

**[00:50:08]** and say, this is athleisure.

**[00:50:13]** Today, when we talk about athleisure, it's football jerseys.

**[00:50:15]** In three years, athleisure will look completely different again.

**[00:50:19]** We often tend to say, this is a trend, sustainability.

**[00:50:23]** It's a trend that's fixed, but trends are never fixed.

**[00:50:26]** My favorite word is zeitgeist, which actually characterizes a trend,

**[00:50:30]** because it shows that time is constantly changing,

**[00:50:36]** but the soul of the trend changes too.

**[00:50:39]** And no trend has a fixed definition.

**[00:50:42]** Something you print out and put above your bed.

**[00:50:45]** To work with trends,

**[00:50:48]** we have to understand the culture around us today.

**[00:50:51]** Today's market, our culture market.

**[00:50:56]** What does that mean?

**[00:50:58]** That we can no longer ignore trends.

**[00:50:59]** That we actually can't ignore trends anymore.

**[00:51:03]** We have to perceive what a trend is.

**[00:51:05]** Having a good product and a good price is no longer enough for us.

**[00:51:10]** Or good distribution.

**[00:51:11]** We need to understand the cultural context in which it operates,

**[00:51:15]** so that our product can be successful.

**[00:51:20]** Almost at the end. Data yes, but.

**[00:51:25]** One thing that has happened is that in an accelerated world,

**[00:51:29]** our historical data no longer works.

**[00:51:32]** It's like when we look at floods.

**[00:51:36]** And we say floods happen every hundred years.

**[00:51:39]** But we know that as climate change worsens,

**[00:51:42]** floods that used to happen every hundred years now happen every ten years.

**[00:51:45]** The same thing happens with those curves in Google Analytics,

**[00:51:49]** when we think the world will look like this in the future.

**[00:51:53]** We draw them, but they don't work in the world that exists.

**[00:51:57]** The result is that most trend reports are completely useless to you,

**[00:52:01]** because they are based exactly on historical data.

**[00:52:04]** Matt Klein, the chief trend forecaster at Reddit, did a meta-analysis

**[00:52:08]** of more than a thousand reports released in recent years.

**[00:52:12]** And what he found is that the vast majority of trend reports

**[00:52:15]** are written in the dominant language. What does that mean?

**[00:52:19]** That the trend report promising to describe the year 2030

**[00:52:24]** actually describes what is happening right now.

**[00:52:27]** It only describes today.

**[00:52:30]** So it says you'll wear wide jeans, but it's actually this.

**[00:52:34]** The second most prominent language is the residual language.

**[00:52:37]** That means that although it promises to describe the future,

**[00:52:41]** it actually describes the past.

**[00:52:44]** It tells you skinny jeans will be trending.

**[00:52:48]** And that's the vast majority.

**[00:52:51]** And the language you expect in the trend report when you buy it,

**[00:52:55]** the language you want that truly talks about the future,

**[00:52:59]** is found in less than 10% of those trend reports.

**[00:53:03]** There are very few of them. And that's because,

**[00:53:06]** we often base them exactly on Google Analytics

**[00:53:09]** or some data sets.

**[00:53:13]** In the analysis, I'll give an example.

**[00:53:16]** Matt always takes all those trend reports

**[00:53:20]** and puts them into thematic blocks.

**[00:53:23]** He simply says, look, many trend reports talk about this topic,

**[00:53:27]** Many trend reports talk about this topic,

**[00:53:30]** Many trend reports talk about this topic.

**[00:53:33]** And then what it does is let AI say whether it's true.

**[00:53:37]** Whether it's really as much as people say.

**[00:53:41]** My favorite example is that in 2023

**[00:53:44]** all trend reports talked about sustainability.

**[00:53:47]** That it's the most crucial thing you should focus on,

**[00:53:51]** the most important thing we'll be talking about in the future.

**[00:53:54]** But when AI analyzed it and looked at

**[00:53:57]** how companies actually implement those strategies,

**[00:54:00]** how it will really work, and so on,

**[00:54:03]** e-commerce and digitalization came out on top.

**[00:54:06]** But no one cares about that. I wouldn't buy reports for that.

**[00:54:10]** The biggest topic this year was

**[00:54:13]** YOLO as a Coop. What does that mean?

**[00:54:16]** That in a world that feels very dark to us,

**[00:54:19]** we start saying, let's enjoy it.

**[00:54:22]** Maybe let's download some dating apps,

**[00:54:26]** have some cakes, maybe buy a pet,

**[00:54:30]** play board games, forget about corporate life.

**[00:54:34]** This whole thing is basically 'you only live once,' which means YOLO.

**[00:54:38]** On the other hand, when compared to

**[00:54:41]** how customers actually behave,

**[00:54:44]** how companies actually include it in their strategies, etc.,

**[00:54:47]** it ranked only tenth out of thirteen.

**[00:54:50]** But the real biggest trend this year

**[00:54:54]** was value vertigo. That we don't exactly have the money

**[00:54:58]** and are figuring out how to get it, how to cope with this.

**[00:55:02]** This is what I talked about today when I told you about

**[00:55:05]** the burger at McDonald's. And suddenly we can read trend reports

**[00:55:10]** and fall for some impression, while the reality is often quite different.

**[00:55:15]** Another reason why trend reports won't work for you,

**[00:55:20]** some of them, because not all are equal.

**[00:55:23]** I grade trend reports as A-level, B-level, and C-level.

**[00:55:28]** C-level is anything you see on TikTok.

**[00:55:32]** Just ignore it, forget you ever saw it.

**[00:55:36]** B-level reports for me are those published by big companies,

**[00:55:41]** which are B-level because they are often motivated by

**[00:55:45]** what the company wants to achieve. When you read a trend report

**[00:55:49]** published by TikTok or YouTube, you will always claim,

**[00:55:52]** that video is the future of marketing communication.

**[00:55:56]** Not surprisingly. And A-level trend reports are, for me, trend reports,

**[00:56:00]** that are niche. For example, HiSnobiety is the best site

**[00:56:05]** that writes about how Gen Z shops for luxury.

**[00:56:09]** It's a great niche topic, but when you want to understand,

**[00:56:13]** how Gen Z perceives luxury and respond to that,

**[00:56:17]** that's exactly the goldmine I have.

**[00:56:20]** Another favorite trend report of mine, which is super niche,

**[00:56:23]** is Snackshot, a girl who writes only about snacks and drinks.

**[00:56:30]** What new releases there are, what's happening, what's being added,

**[00:56:34]** and what snacks, bars, and chocolates you can buy.

**[00:56:38]** And when she says the protein era is over,

**[00:56:43]** and creatine is taking its place, I say yes.

**[00:56:47]** That's exactly the basis on which I want to make my business decisions.

**[00:56:53]** The problem for us Czechs, and why I started my agency,

**[00:56:59]** is that 90% of trend reports come from ten cities worldwide.

**[00:57:05]** None are in Latin America, none in Africa.

**[00:57:10]** The vast majority are in America and Europe. The closest to us is Berlin.

**[00:57:15]** That means whenever you read a trend report,

**[00:57:18]** it doesn't reflect our cultural context.

**[00:57:21]** So what we do most of the time is meta-analyze trend reports

**[00:57:26]** and benchmark them against the reality we see here in the Czech,

**[00:57:30]** Slovak, Hungarian, and Polish markets. To say,

**[00:57:33]** whether those Clean Girls and Stanley Cuppy and everything else you see,

**[00:57:36]** are actually relevant and how it plays out here.

**[00:57:40]** Because often it's a completely different story.

**[00:57:43]** Many trend reports on education,

**[00:57:46]** will tell you how young people no longer want to go to university.

**[00:57:50]** This comes from the American context, where going to university

**[00:57:54]** means huge debt, which is something you want to avoid.

**[00:57:58]** But in the Czech context, it's a completely different story.

**[00:58:01]** So even if the outcome is the same,

**[00:58:04]** that they don't want to go to university, the motivation is different.

**[00:58:08]** Maybe it's that they want to earn money, start a startup.

**[00:58:11]** Not that they're afraid of going into debt.

**[00:58:15]** So we're almost at the end, and I just want to say,

**[00:58:19]** there are many trends swirling around you,

**[00:58:24]** and I want you not to surf every wave.

**[00:58:28]** There are brands that have to jump on almost every wave.

**[00:58:32]** It's NYX and it's McDonald's.

**[00:58:35]** And then there are brands that contrast all those waves,

**[00:58:38]** like Diesel, which always says the opposite of what's trending.

**[00:58:42]** And then there are brands that are deliberately consistently off-trend,

**[00:58:46]** like Harley Davidson or the Catholic Church.

**[00:58:49]** They've been saying the same thing for a whole thousand years.

**[00:58:54]** And I think what I need to understand are two things.

**[00:58:58]** Where does my brand stand? And it doesn't always stand in the same place.

**[00:59:02]** You don't want to be here one time, there the next.

**[00:59:05]** And the second thing is, who is my customer?

**[00:59:08]** What is my brand? And only then the culture, whether it fits.

**[00:59:12]** I often see brands, and now I'll exaggerate on purpose,

**[00:59:15]** that run a pub where they serve gambáč,

**[00:59:19]** and suddenly they come and say, so we're going to serve matcha,

**[00:59:22]** because we read it in a trend report.

**[00:59:25]** And suddenly it makes no sense at all.

**[00:59:28]** That means I'm only looking for the waves I want to surf.

**[00:59:31]** When you go surfing, you don't want to surf every wave,

**[00:59:35]** because you'd be tired in half an hour.

**[00:59:38]** But you want to surf only the waves that work for you,

**[00:59:41]** that are high enough for you to surf.

**[00:59:44]** And that's exactly how I want you to think about trends.

**[00:59:48]** And we're completely at the end.

**[00:59:51]** And I'll be very happy if you write me a message on Instagram, LinkedIn,

**[00:59:55]** or email about what you take away to practice,

**[00:59:59]** if you have favorites,

**[01:00:00]** or if you learned something today. And if you write me that message, I'll give you a gift. I just released conversational cards about the future from Papilote,

**[01:00:11]** where you can talk about the future, so I'll be glad if you send me a message, and I'll send you a gift because feedback is a gift.

**[01:00:22]** At the very end, I regularly write a newsletter about trends where I curate and explain them. I wrote in detail about Zempik and what it does to us, or about

**[01:00:33]** how exactly customers and brands react to everything being more expensive now. And my next newsletter will be about why we're so angry right now.

**[01:00:43]** Anger is the only moment that bursts bubbles, so you'll get that this weekend.

**[01:00:48]** I recorded a TEDx where I explain how to predict the future in English. I had a long podcast with Téa Kučerová, who is now the editor-in-chief of L.

**[01:00:58]** And you can still find it on Spotify, and I think many of those episodes still work.

**[01:01:05]** And finally, if you're interested in any trend report, I just released this kind of planner for next year together with Papelote.

**[01:01:13]** It contains over 50 trends that will be trending in the Czech Republic. There's a lot described in it. If you use the code brainandbreakfast10, you can buy it.

**[01:01:24]** The code is valid for a week. So I'm winking at you.

**[01:01:29]** That’s the very end, and I thank you very much for watching me and paying attention here in this room.

**[01:01:37]** You smiled at me so nicely. You don’t see it through the screens, but they were smiling at me the whole time, which was great.

**[01:01:45]** And I want to thank you very much. Write to me, and now I look forward to the questions we will discuss with Honza. Thanks.

**[01:01:58]** I'm not going anywhere. I'll bring one more chair.

**[01:02:06]** I got these cards from Pavlína, so I'll take one.

**[01:02:11]** You can choose whether you want English or Czech. We published them in both languages.

**[01:02:16]** I'll take the Czech ones now.

**[01:02:20]** These are Czech trends, right?

**[01:02:23]** Look, the conversation can be about any trends.

**[01:02:27]** Whenever I read your newsletter, and I’m kind of a reader of it,

**[01:02:32]** I listened to all the episodes you did with Teo,

**[01:02:37]** I often shake my head.

**[01:02:41]** You know, it always...

**[01:02:44]** It just stirs emotions in me.

**[01:02:47]** Like, how can people be so stupid, and how come this and that, and what’s going on.

**[01:02:51]** Then I always have to take three deep breaths and tell myself,

**[01:02:54]** this is calm. This is just some trend.

**[01:02:57]** There’s a group of people who just have it like this.

**[01:03:00]** That doesn’t mean you have to have it that way too.

**[01:03:03]** And so, when I was kind of looking at the questions,

**[01:03:08]** someone wrote that people are sheep and how that actually forms.

**[01:03:13]** So I’m just thinking about that.

**[01:03:16]** If you said innovation and trends,

**[01:03:19]** what is the correlation for you as someone who follows this?

**[01:03:25]** When you do innovation in a company, you often connect it to something

**[01:03:31]** that your customers experience.

**[01:03:34]** We often do the value proposition canvas,

**[01:03:37]** where you map pains, gains, jobs. And often the trends are the same.

**[01:03:41]** They respond to those pains, gains, and jobs.

**[01:03:44]** For example, if I talk about vol and bubu, those are the fluffy dolls

**[01:03:48]** that people hang on their handbags now,

**[01:03:51]** they respond to the fact that the world around us is darker

**[01:03:56]** and that you’re looking for something that brightens your day.

**[01:03:59]** What might be yours as a talisman.

**[01:04:02]** Something that simultaneously winks at others who also have it hanging on their bag

**[01:04:06]** and says, we two can talk.

**[01:04:09]** And we'll probably understand each other because we both paid three thousand for a plush toy.

**[01:04:14]** And suddenly, it's like, for me, it's really nice

**[01:04:18]** to see people who have a labubu, because it means they're sending a signal and saying,

**[01:04:23]** let's build a community, let's understand each other.

**[01:04:26]** That's something we've always sent since prehistoric times.

**[01:04:29]** That means, on one hand, you can look at it and say,

**[01:04:33]** how can someone pay three thousand for a plush toy.

**[01:04:36]** And on the other hand, it's really nice that we have hobbies,

**[01:04:39]** that we're not just scrolling on Instagram.

**[01:04:42]** I actually find every trend positive.

**[01:04:45]** It really helps me a lot.

**[01:04:48]** Is that therapeutic zoning out?

**[01:04:51]** No, no, no.

**[01:04:53]** I'll get to that right away.

**[01:04:55]** I was with Ján Origo, we were within our

**[01:04:59]** expert innovation community, we were at Kantar.

**[01:05:02]** And we looked at the curves they track globally.

**[01:05:05]** And it was hugely interesting for me to really look at

**[01:05:09]** what's actually happening in the market and that the signals,

**[01:05:12]** just as you described, are far enough ahead that

**[01:05:15]** a big brand, when, and now this is actually

**[01:05:19]** the question for me, imagine I'm a big brand like Coca-Cola,

**[01:05:22]** McDonald's, whatever, I have an unlimited marketing budget.

**[01:05:25]** That means I actually create the trends.

**[01:05:28]** In today's world, I can simply pay x

**[01:05:31]** influencers and tell them, hey, this is something

**[01:05:34]** that actually makes a lot of sense, etc.

**[01:05:38]** Or in a worse case, if we talk about some kind of

**[01:05:41]** dark world, I will have troll farms

**[01:05:45]** that can amplify any opinion or something

**[01:05:48]** very, very strongly on the social networks that people consume.

**[01:05:51]** So I just want to ask, and there's one question,

**[01:05:53]** to what extent is it still, how to say, like some,

**[01:05:56]** that those ten cities and that people actually do it,

**[01:06:00]** and to what extent is it already some managed activity

**[01:06:03]** by marketers who do this here?

**[01:06:06]** marketers who do this here?

**[01:06:08]** I love it, this is like the concept,

**[01:06:11]** that we sit down and just decide like

**[01:06:15]** in some small group what everyone will think,

**[01:06:18]** eat, and do now, yeah, like I wish, but it's not true.

**[01:06:22]** This was true back in the 50s, when

**[01:06:27]** a few people regularly met twice a year at the Ritz hotel in Paris

**[01:06:31]** and negotiated what the fashion trends would be and basically

**[01:06:35]** then published it, and it happened.

**[01:06:37]** But then social media came, media came,

**[01:06:40]** and suddenly each of us can have a voice.

**[01:06:42]** And that's why the illusion that some Marek Prchal sits down

**[01:06:46]** and says, from now on we will all do this,

**[01:06:49]** is not true, it's unrealistic.

**[01:06:51]** It just doesn't work like that.

**[01:06:53]** Even if I had Coca-Cola and could push any budget there,

**[01:06:55]** it wouldn't work.

**[01:06:58]** There are things that obviously have a budget behind them

**[01:07:02]** and at the same time tap into the cultural context.

**[01:07:06]** Like Barbie.

**[01:07:08]** The Barbie movie had a huge budget behind it.

**[01:07:11]** It's exactly typical.

**[01:07:12]** We agreed that Barbie would be the thing.

**[01:07:14]** But what it tapped into was the long wave of

**[01:07:17]** talking about feminism.

**[01:07:19]** About the position of women in society,

**[01:07:22]** how it's set up.

**[01:07:24]** We were looking for some expression of

**[01:07:27]** femininity beyond just putting on a suit

**[01:07:31]** and being as tough as the guys.

**[01:07:33]** And suddenly this stance worked so well,

**[01:07:36]** because they took something happening in society

**[01:07:39]** and basically sent the budget there.

**[01:07:41]** And that's how these companies actually work.

**[01:07:44]** They have their trend scouts,

**[01:07:46]** their own trend departments,

**[01:07:48]** because they closely watch what's going on there

**[01:07:50]** and what to attach their product to.

**[01:07:52]** It's never about planting seeds on asphalt.

**[01:07:57]** Because they will never sprout there.

**[01:07:59]** I want to plant the seeds in soil.

**[01:08:01]** Great. When I had innovations at 13 years old,

**[01:08:04]** we worked with young designers

**[01:08:06]** and always gave them something.

**[01:08:08]** They came up with ideas I would never have thought of in my life,

**[01:08:11]** and it was really interesting.

**[01:08:13]** I actually support what you were saying.

**[01:08:15]** One of my questions, whether I'm in front of

**[01:08:18]** high school or university students,

**[01:08:20]** is to ask them who they follow,

**[01:08:23]** what their sources are.

**[01:08:25]** And I ask for their perspective.

**[01:08:27]** We even had a breakfast with Bara Stary,

**[01:08:29]** recently, about the younger generation.

**[01:08:31]** But here’s the question: with an aging population,

**[01:08:34]** if trends start with the young,

**[01:08:36]** does that mean seniors adopt teenage trends?

**[01:08:45]** More answers.

**[01:08:47]** Of course, trends often start

**[01:08:50]** with teenagers,

**[01:08:52]** who quickly spread them

**[01:08:54]** to the rest of the population.

**[01:08:56]** And if you look today,

**[01:08:58]** who has a labubu on their handbag,

**[01:09:00]** it’s not just fifteen-year-old girls,

**[01:09:02]** but people around us.

**[01:09:04]** Or if we look at who has AI recorders,

**[01:09:06]** it’s not just fifteen-year-old kids,

**[01:09:08]** but everyone around us.

**[01:09:10]** And that, I think, is what's interesting today.

**[01:09:12]** And why I don’t like using

**[01:09:14]** age categories much?

**[01:09:16]** Because I feel people behave

**[01:09:18]** a bit differently than just by age.

**[01:09:20]** Like, I could have

**[01:09:22]** a Taylor Swift fan,

**[01:09:24]** who is a 50-year-old guy from New York

**[01:09:26]** and a 20-year-old girl, and they’ll have things to talk about

**[01:09:28]** and understand each other.

**[01:09:30]** So we often talk much more

**[01:09:32]** That's why we often talk about it much more

**[01:09:34]** about things like sentiments,

**[01:09:36]** that actually connect our customers.

**[01:09:38]** Or we talk much more

**[01:09:40]** about some subcultures,

**[01:09:42]** that they belong to, which connect

**[01:09:44]** our customers much more.

**[01:09:46]** So the fact that we look at a trend,

**[01:09:48]** to see if something starts with young people,

**[01:09:50]** but at the same time we look at many other things,

**[01:09:52]** and age is a complete detail.

**[01:10:00]** The job didn't exist until some time ago, and I think many people can't even imagine what it's like.

**[01:10:07]** I know you have a group of people around you who bring you various trends, you share them among yourselves and so on.

**[01:10:13]** Try to actually describe what exactly you do.

**[01:10:16]** Because we can probably imagine that companies hire you to actually show and bring them trends.

**[01:10:23]** There's the question of how long it takes you to write the newsletter.

**[01:10:25]** When I read the newsletter about toxic masculinity, which is a topic that really interests me,

**[01:10:30]** I learned many things, data and so on.

**[01:10:32]** So I thought, wow, this is intense.

**[01:10:34]** How does it actually work?

**[01:10:36]** More questions coming. I'll start with the simplest one.

**[01:10:41]** I write the newsletter for several months.

**[01:10:43]** It's something I often think about for a long time.

**[01:10:47]** I do research on it for a long time.

**[01:10:49]** I have a team that helps me with it.

**[01:10:52]** For example, I have a researcher in the team who helps me find some things.

**[01:10:56]** She also acts as my sounding board.

**[01:10:58]** To make sure it's really precise, so that when I send something out,

**[01:11:02]** it's based on the correct data, so people can work with it afterwards.

**[01:11:07]** So that's the long story so far.

**[01:11:10]** Ah, the first part of the question.

**[01:11:12]** Just what the work actually looks like, right?

**[01:11:13]** Yes, yes, yes.

**[01:11:14]** My work has always worked in some way.

**[01:11:19]** We have always tried to predict the future, right?

**[01:11:22]** Fortune tellers in Delphi or anything else.

**[01:11:25]** But the work, as we talk about it today,

**[01:11:28]** trend forecasting, foresight, and so on,

**[01:11:31]** started around the 1960s.

**[01:11:33]** So it's not like it just appeared last year.

**[01:11:36]** I think what constantly changes in this work,

**[01:11:39]** These are the tools we have.

**[01:11:42]** That means, for me, the work

**[01:11:46]** used to be, for example, when you looked at the big agencies,

**[01:11:49]** they often relied on their real trend scouts.

**[01:11:52]** The people they had in the individual cities,

**[01:11:55]** in the individual communities,

**[01:11:57]** who regularly met at one table,

**[01:12:00]** talked about what they saw,

**[01:12:03]** and based on that wrote trend reports.

**[01:12:06]** Today, much more often, we scroll through Reddit,

**[01:12:09]** watch which hashtags start trending on TikTok,

**[01:12:12]** use AI meta-analysis of the trend reports that come in.

**[01:12:15]** That means it's often more like

**[01:12:18]** data and computer work, but we don't forget

**[01:12:21]** to watch and observe people.

**[01:12:24]** Because when I talked about signals,

**[01:12:27]** signals are something not yet visible in Google Trends.

**[01:12:30]** Signals aren't visible yet in the mainstream data.

**[01:12:33]** And it's something I really have to see.

**[01:12:36]** I remember a few years ago I joined

**[01:12:40]** one of the biggest global communities for trend forecasters.

**[01:12:43]** I came there and said,

**[01:12:46]** please, what tools do you use?

**[01:12:49]** Tell me again.

**[01:12:52]** I was excited to hear what tools they use

**[01:12:55]** so I could install them and so on.

**[01:12:58]** They looked at me and the community founder said,

**[01:13:01]** you just watch and then you know.

**[01:13:04]** And I thought,

**[01:13:08]** I sat through it all, it's completely studied.

**[01:13:11]** She said, well, you know,

**[01:13:14]** I've been watching people for 30 years,

**[01:13:17]** so I just know what's different again.

**[01:13:20]** And I think that's actually

**[01:13:23]** my favorite part of the work.

**[01:13:26]** On one hand, it's really heavy data work,

**[01:13:29]** and on the other hand, it's very EZO.

**[01:13:32]** Then all my EZO tendencies

**[01:13:35]** can be expressed to the maximum,

**[01:13:38]** when you actually combine it all together.

**[01:13:41]** And I think there is no one size fits all.

**[01:13:44]** Last year, for example, I joined

**[01:13:47]** a community of global trend forecasters,

**[01:13:50]** where we published the first global report,

**[01:13:53]** and each of us was responsible for one country.

**[01:13:56]** So that the first reports would also come from Botswana

**[01:13:59]** and Singapore and the Czech Republic.

**[01:14:02]** I was in charge of the Czech Republic,

**[01:14:05]** and we worked on this report for quite a long time.

**[01:14:08]** Thanks to that, I met more than 60 people

**[01:14:11]** from all over the world who do this.

**[01:14:14]** Each of us had a completely different tactic,

**[01:14:17]** each of us had a completely different stack,

**[01:14:20]** each of us had a completely different approach.

**[01:14:23]** But in the end, when you read the report,

**[01:14:26]** we all talk about very similar things.

**[01:14:29]** And when one of us comes up with something, we actually feel

**[01:14:32]** those things in society very similarly.

**[01:14:35]** What is the new word for cool?

**[01:14:38]** That's a good question.

**[01:14:41]** I think there are...

**[01:14:44]** Thank you for the question, I'll think about it.

**[01:14:47]** I think it is...

**[01:14:50]** I'll go back to what I was saying.

**[01:14:53]** It depends on which bubble you live in.

**[01:14:56]** There are bubbles where the word for cool

**[01:14:59]** can be 'slej'.

**[01:15:02]** And there are bubbles where 'slej' is already totally lame.

**[01:15:05]** And there are bubbles where there's something else again.

**[01:15:08]** So I think the main thing is to choose a word for yourself.

**[01:15:11]** I have 'cool'.

**[01:15:14]** Right now I have some...

**[01:15:17]** Something like 'mega sigma' or something like that is happening at home.

**[01:15:20]** So 'mega sigma'.

**[01:15:24]** 'Cool' is no longer it.

**[01:15:27]** But I'm glad you said that, because we often feel

**[01:15:30]** that older people don't understand trends.

**[01:15:33]** I really have this concept that we need young designers

**[01:15:36]** to bring us innovation.

**[01:15:39]** Or just by hiring Gen Z, we'll be trendy.

**[01:15:42]** From my experience, the people who understand trends the most,

**[01:15:45]** are people who have 13-year-old kids at home.

**[01:15:48]** Seriously, really. They are the only people who

**[01:15:51]** perfectly understand all the slang, perfectly understand

**[01:15:54]** what's happening on Roblox and so on.

**[01:15:57]** And we tend to throw them away because they've already had their forties.

**[01:16:00]** But that's not true at all.

**[01:16:03]** So, please,

**[01:16:06]** let's put this cliché aside.

**[01:16:09]** It's very interesting that you say that.

**[01:16:12]** Now, when I think about how Italian Brain Road could help me,

**[01:16:15]** in my work.

**[01:16:19]** Well, yes,

**[01:16:22]** we have it under control with people.

**[01:16:25]** But it gives you, when you observe the younger generation growing up,

**[01:16:28]** some reflection on how the customer will behave in the future.

**[01:16:31]** And at first glance,

**[01:16:34]** you think about baristas making cappuccinos,

**[01:16:37]** how it relates to me, I get it.

**[01:16:40]** Now I should list ten, but I only gave five.

**[01:16:43]** I was really a big nerd.

**[01:16:47]** At the moment when most of those kids play video games,

**[01:16:50]** kids spend a third more time on Roblox

**[01:16:53]** than we adults spend on Netflix,

**[01:16:56]** that means we can suddenly include gaming elements in the UX of our apps,

**[01:16:59]** which they are used to.

**[01:17:02]** Or we can suddenly operate with microtransactions,

**[01:17:05]** which they are used to from those games.

**[01:17:08]** Or when most, 55% of kids under 3 years old

**[01:17:11]** have their own iPad.

**[01:17:15]** That means they have their own relationship with technology.

**[01:17:18]** That means we know that in the future

**[01:17:21]** they will operate technology differently.

**[01:17:24]** A third of seven-year-olds have already talked to AI.

**[01:17:27]** And therefore we know that a generation is coming,

**[01:17:30]** which is able to have a relationship with technology.

**[01:17:33]** They will trust technology completely differently.

**[01:17:36]** They will talk to it.

**[01:17:39]** 26% of children aged 6 to 11

**[01:17:43]** talk to Alexa at least once a day.

**[01:17:46]** And she asks it if Ježíšek exists.

**[01:17:49]** And Alexa answers.

**[01:17:52]** Because unlike that Alexa, she always has time.

**[01:17:55]** And as a result, a generation is growing up,

**[01:17:58]** which, unlike us, does not distinguish between online and offline.

**[01:18:01]** I say I can tell you're old by the fact that you use the words online and offline.

**[01:18:04]** And suddenly, they have a completely different ability

**[01:18:07]** depending on whether technology talks to them or not?

**[01:18:10]** Well...

**[01:18:13]** Tyko, you were dystopian, that was it.

**[01:18:16]** No, no, no.

**[01:18:19]** Because what you're saying is information,

**[01:18:22]** which I can handle.

**[01:18:25]** And either I collapse here and say,

**[01:18:28]** so this is like a disaster.

**[01:18:31]** Or I can do something about it, maybe, I don't want to say, to make it different,

**[01:18:34]** if someone helps me.

**[01:18:37]** Has it ever happened that the general public did not adopt a trend

**[01:18:40]** promoted by the fashion industry as a trend?

**[01:18:43]** Or do people really act like sheep?

**[01:18:46]** That was the question there.

**[01:18:49]** Yes, it happens all the time, nonstop.

**[01:18:52]** In fact, many trends never reach the mainstream at all.

**[01:18:55]** Or they reach the mainstream, appear on billboards, but then don't sell.

**[01:18:58]** It's a completely normal way.

**[01:19:01]** And if you're interested in fashion trends, what I want to recommend to you

**[01:19:04]** is the platform Edit.it.

**[01:19:07]** And Edit.it collects data from all kinds of retailers,

**[01:19:10]** like Asos, Zara, etc.

**[01:19:13]** And it analyzes what sells and what doesn't.

**[01:19:16]** And what had to go on sale and what doesn't get discounted.

**[01:19:19]** And if you want to know whether skinny jeans are coming back or not,

**[01:19:22]** just read their reports to see if they have started selling or not yet.

**[01:19:25]** And compare that with what some trend forecasters tell you,

**[01:19:29]** that's a nice reality check.

**[01:19:32]** But in technology, it happens quite commonly.

**[01:19:35]** Do you remember how we all said metaverse is the thing.

**[01:19:38]** And then we're like, where are we? We're nowhere.

**[01:19:41]** Or we talked about how the App Store would replace GPTs

**[01:19:44]** Or we talked about the App Store being replaced by GPTs

**[01:19:47]** and actually we're not there again.

**[01:19:50]** I understand that we're not there.

**[01:19:53]** That means there are many things we're talking about,

**[01:19:56]** that won't happen at all.

**[01:20:00]** I've always wanted to ask you one question.

**[01:20:03]** I also don't know of any agency that says,

**[01:20:06]** once a year, that this year's color is...

**[01:20:09]** Pantone.

**[01:20:11]** Yeah, Pantone.

**[01:20:13]** So how does Pantone do it, saying,

**[01:20:16]** the color of the year is salmon?

**[01:20:21]** It's not salmon.

**[01:20:23]** I know, I know, I was guessing.

**[01:20:25]** But I know you wanted to flex.

**[01:20:27]** I wanted to, yes, like something...

**[01:20:29]** Exactly.

**[01:20:31]** The only orange I know is October.

**[01:20:34]** I understand, I understand.

**[01:20:36]** That's it.

**[01:20:37]** We can handle that.

**[01:20:39]** Look, it's exactly the same as when I explained

**[01:20:42]** those houseplants or those sneakers.

**[01:20:44]** And when I give an example, like Pantone,

**[01:20:47]** one of the colors of the year around COVID,

**[01:20:51]** was a dark blue.

**[01:20:53]** And it was because they said,

**[01:20:55]** people suddenly needed some calming.

**[01:20:58]** And that indigo is kind of magical,

**[01:21:01]** that it's somewhat spiritual and so on.

**[01:21:03]** There's always a long essay with it.

**[01:21:06]** I think it worked before.

**[01:21:08]** Honestly, now I think colors don't work at all anymore.

**[01:21:10]** So you can just forget about it.

**[01:21:12]** Just look at it.

**[01:21:13]** Practice naming the colors.

**[01:21:15]** But you don't have to work with it further.

**[01:21:17]** Thanks.

**[01:21:19]** Everyone.

**[01:21:21]** No salmon.

**[01:21:22]** By the way, next year's is called

**[01:21:24]** Transformative Teal.

**[01:21:26]** It's kind of a blue-green.

**[01:21:28]** It's really ugly.

**[01:21:34]** So I shouldn't paint it.

**[01:21:36]** No, no, no.

**[01:21:38]** Which trend are you personally most excited about right now?

**[01:21:40]** And which one do you not relate to at all?

**[01:21:45]** One of the trends I write about in my planner,

**[01:21:49]** is friction.

**[01:21:51]** And I'm really looking forward to,

**[01:21:53]** or I already notice,

**[01:21:55]** that we're starting to enjoy friction again.

**[01:21:57]** It's because all these years,

**[01:21:59]** we've been optimizing everything

**[01:22:01]** to be completely effortless.

**[01:22:03]** So that things arrive in the Alzabox,

**[01:22:05]** and Volt delivers the items,

**[01:22:07]** and we have one-click check-out in the app,

**[01:22:09]** and so on.

**[01:22:11]** And suddenly we realized that

**[01:22:13]** in some things, we're losing that ability.

**[01:22:15]** And I don't have the same joy

**[01:22:17]** from things I can order

**[01:22:19]** with one click versus when I have to wait for something.

**[01:22:21]** And when I observed the process,

**[01:22:23]** how it's made and so on,

**[01:22:25]** what we see now is that friction is coming back to us.

**[01:22:27]** That, for example, luxury means

**[01:22:29]** waiting half a year for a Birkin bag.

**[01:22:31]** And that's exactly why it's luxurious.

**[01:22:33]** Or luxury means waiting

**[01:22:35]** about a year for a reservation at Noma,

**[01:22:37]** and then going there.

**[01:22:39]** But at the same time, it's also friction in that

**[01:22:41]** there are things I can only buy

**[01:22:43]** in a physical store,

**[01:22:45]** which is the only one in the world and I have to travel there.

**[01:22:47]** And that's why I enjoy it

**[01:22:49]** and appreciate it.

**[01:22:51]** and I appreciate that.

**[01:22:53]** And so I actually feel that we are regaining

**[01:22:55]** that kind of humanity

**[01:22:57]** and the quest in this.

**[01:22:59]** I used to play a lot of

**[01:23:01]** Dungeons & Dragons, so I love

**[01:23:03]** all quest-related things,

**[01:23:05]** where you have a task to get something,

**[01:23:07]** to do something, and so on.

**[01:23:11]** What was the biggest

**[01:23:13]** and the trend,

**[01:23:15]** in your opinion?

**[01:23:19]** Maybe I'm thinking about

**[01:23:21]** how to evaluate it. How do you actually evaluate?

**[01:23:25]** Is it the sales?

**[01:23:27]** Is it the money involved?

**[01:23:29]** How do you actually evaluate

**[01:23:31]** the trend?

**[01:23:33]** Is it that people talk about it?

**[01:23:35]** Is it that someone is jumping on it?

**[01:23:37]** What is it actually?

**[01:23:39]** For me, the most relevant trend,

**[01:23:41]** the most relevant for my customer,

**[01:23:43]** is when they spend some money on it.

**[01:23:45]** If a client comes

**[01:23:47]** and says,

**[01:23:49]** I need help with trends,

**[01:23:51]** I need to find something that works for them.

**[01:23:53]** And it doesn't matter if

**[01:23:55]** matcha is trending on TikTok,

**[01:23:57]** but if craft beers are relevant for them,

**[01:23:59]** then I have to talk about craft beers.

**[01:24:01]** About how they are functional.

**[01:24:03]** I think that in this work,

**[01:24:05]** it somewhat resembles the work

**[01:24:07]** of many other people who actually

**[01:24:09]** are in this field.

**[01:24:11]** That means that

**[01:24:13]** I want it to be

**[01:24:15]** relevant for the brand

**[01:24:17]** relevant to that brand

**[01:24:19]** and for his customer.

**[01:24:21]** So if we look at the biggest trend,

**[01:24:23]** in your opinion?

**[01:24:27]** I think I actually agree

**[01:24:29]** with the analysis that we

**[01:24:31]** talked a lot about the high prices.

**[01:24:33]** That we don't have money, how to

**[01:24:35]** be more accommodating to that,

**[01:24:37]** how to give the customer

**[01:24:39]** the feeling that

**[01:24:41]** they have a good life and that we

**[01:24:43]** want to support them in it.

**[01:24:45]** And when you showed that report,

**[01:24:47]** that about one third were from Europe?

**[01:24:49]** Yes, those are European data.

**[01:24:51]** That's Eurostat.

**[01:24:53]** So

**[01:24:55]** in short,

**[01:24:57]** certain political

**[01:24:59]** marketers who know how to navigate this,

**[01:25:01]** when they say that high prices is the word,

**[01:25:03]** they actually jump on that trend

**[01:25:05]** and basically use it.

**[01:25:07]** But I have another favorite

**[01:25:09]** trend that you might

**[01:25:11]** not have noticed, which wasn't so obvious,

**[01:25:13]** but now that I tell you, you'll come back to it

**[01:25:15]** and remember it.

**[01:25:17]** One of the biggest trends that came out

**[01:25:19]** exactly from those analyses, like the one Matt Klein did,

**[01:25:21]** was that

**[01:25:23]** we suddenly are fascinated by anything tactile.

**[01:25:25]** And it was in contrast to how

**[01:25:27]** all around us there are technologies

**[01:25:29]** and everything is kind of sleek,

**[01:25:31]** like those MacBook designs.

**[01:25:33]** So suddenly we choose at home

**[01:25:35]** for example a sofa,

**[01:25:37]** which is made of boucle. It has some kind of

**[01:25:39]** texture, or it actually

**[01:25:41]** Touch was very visible now.

**[01:25:43]** Anything you can touch.

**[01:25:45]** But at the same time, these are experiences

**[01:25:47]** and hobbies that involve touch.

**[01:25:49]** Why do we start going to ceramics?

**[01:25:51]** Because it's actually very tactile

**[01:25:53]** and touch-based. And it has that

**[01:25:55]** experience of the material.

**[01:25:57]** That's why

**[01:25:59]** we brought home some furs

**[01:26:01]** and so on. Because it's very tactile again.

**[01:26:03]** But it's also about the fact that

**[01:26:05]** we got back

**[01:26:07]** some experiences,

**[01:26:09]** which were very tactile.

**[01:26:11]** That we suddenly had communities where

**[01:26:13]** I don't know, maybe I go berry picking.

**[01:26:15]** Or that I go to the sauna,

**[01:26:17]** where I experience my physicality.

**[01:26:19]** And again, it's very tactile. We've seen this

**[01:26:21]** quite a lot in the last year.

**[01:26:23]** There's a question that

**[01:26:25]** I really like. How to

**[01:26:27]** not get lost in trends

**[01:26:29]** and competition from big companies?

**[01:26:35]** I'll go back

**[01:26:37]** to how I corrected myself, that

**[01:26:39]** some clients have WhatsApp groups

**[01:26:41]** set up

**[01:26:43]** with their customers.

**[01:26:45]** I think the task

**[01:26:47]** is not to follow

**[01:26:49]** all trend reports from now on.

**[01:26:51]** That's my full-time job.

**[01:26:53]** It can't be done.

**[01:26:55]** But to find

**[01:26:57]** just again,

**[01:26:59]** what is relevant for my target group.

**[01:27:01]** What is relevant for my field

**[01:27:03]** and for my context.

**[01:27:05]** And actually start watching it.

**[01:27:07]** I actually

**[01:27:09]** am still thinking whether it is

**[01:27:11]** about creating communities around you.

**[01:27:13]** That you actually have those thousand people.

**[01:27:15]** Like one thousand true tenants.

**[01:27:17]** That actually, that

**[01:27:19]** maybe this is

**[01:27:21]** the answer to that question.

**[01:27:23]** Because I can actually create

**[01:27:25]** or respect, I can be part of that trend

**[01:27:27]** for my own group, for my own crew.

**[01:27:29]** So I just don't know,

**[01:27:31]** if it wasn't meant here like this,

**[01:27:33]** if it doesn't clash with trends created

**[01:27:35]** by big companies. And like being something

**[01:27:37]** different and somehow that.

**[01:27:39]** Or how to jump on it. That's how I understood it.

**[01:27:41]** But maybe it's different.

**[01:27:43]** Look, whoever you are,

**[01:27:45]** if you don't answer me now,

**[01:27:47]** write me an email

**[01:27:49]** and I will reply. We can even

**[01:27:51]** call each other.

**[01:27:53]** What percentage of people is not influenced by marketing?

**[01:27:55]** And what to recommend for this category,

**[01:27:57]** if you want to offer or sell them something?

**[01:28:01]** Karel Novotný was here and kind of

**[01:28:03]** showed us that probably all of us

**[01:28:05]** are influenced by marketing. I think

**[01:28:07]** we all are influenced, because

**[01:28:09]** you can't not notice

**[01:28:11]** what's happening around you.

**[01:28:13]** You can have an adblock enabled

**[01:28:15]** and you can try banner

**[01:28:17]** blocking and so on, but actually

**[01:28:19]** the world around us

**[01:28:21]** is happening, you can't turn it off. That's why I say,

**[01:28:23]** that trends don't influence me,

**[01:28:25]** is a sentence I don't believe, because

**[01:28:27]** on each of us

**[01:28:29]** what is happening is piling up. And what I

**[01:28:31]** chose this morning, including,

**[01:28:33]** is something that responds

**[01:28:35]** to what I experience around me.

**[01:28:37]** That means aspirational

**[01:28:39]** questions.

**[01:28:41]** What would you recommend

**[01:28:43]** for this category,

**[01:28:45]** if you want to sell them something?

**[01:28:47]** I might talk for a moment about those

**[01:28:49]** sentiments, because that is

**[01:28:51]** maybe interesting for you if you have some

**[01:28:53]** brands. We actually

**[01:28:55]** track

**[01:28:57]** sentiments in trend reports.

**[01:28:59]** This is something that, for example,

**[01:29:01]** WGSN, the big trend agency,

**[01:29:03]** publishes every year a report

**[01:29:05]** showing what

**[01:29:07]** sentiments their customers experience.

**[01:29:09]** And what is great about these sentiments

**[01:29:11]** is that they are across all groups.

**[01:29:13]** I'll give you an example

**[01:29:15]** of sentiments we saw

**[01:29:17]** after COVID. On one hand,

**[01:29:19]** we had a sentiment of people

**[01:29:21]** who saw COVID

**[01:29:23]** as a huge opportunity. It was

**[01:29:25]** a time to get back in shape and start

**[01:29:27]** running and learning new things

**[01:29:29]** and reinvent the company. It was kind of

**[01:29:31]** like wow, let's do this, great,

**[01:29:33]** now we have time to reset.

**[01:29:35]** Another big sentiment we saw

**[01:29:37]** around COVID was

**[01:29:39]** I want to close myself back

**[01:29:41]** into my community. I want

**[01:29:43]** to go only to my nearest shop,

**[01:29:45]** to that butcher, maybe move to the cottage

**[01:29:47]** and find

**[01:29:49]** your own safe space there.

**[01:29:51]** Another sentiment was

**[01:29:53]** tragic optimism, meaning

**[01:29:55]** I want to keep optimism

**[01:29:57]** despite having experienced something

**[01:29:59]** Thank you.

**[01:30:00]** Even if someone experienced a death in the family, or thought that the world would somehow heal, that we would realize something thanks to covid.

**[01:30:08]** And then there were people with huge nostalgia who were the first to return to the office and the canteen,

**[01:30:17]** because things should be back to normal. These were things we observed across age groups.

**[01:30:23]** It didn't matter if you were Gen Z or a boomer, you basically fell into some category.

**[01:30:29]** And brands can often choose one of these sentiments to respond to.

**[01:30:35]** It can be a brand that communicates, don't worry, with us it's like you've always been used to, Lidl Retro Weeks.

**[01:30:42]** I think they are a great example of a brand that communicates with the sentiment of missing something, feeling

**[01:30:49]** that the world has gone away and wanting to return there. Then there are others that will communicate to people who want to jump into the future.

**[01:30:57]** That's Revolut and cryptocurrencies, and it's like come train with us and so on.

**[01:31:03]** And these sentiments can work well for us to set the brand.

**[01:31:09]** I often make a checklist to see if my brand responds to the sentiments currently in society.

**[01:31:18]** One sentiment that has grown significantly since covid and we see in data is nihilism.

**[01:31:25]** The feeling that nothing makes sense anymore, that everything will collapse, that corrupt politicians will flood everything.

**[01:31:33]** And we can either wink at those people and say, yes, we know it will collapse, so let's enjoy it before it does.

**[01:31:42]** Or we can say, let's do something, let's be active, let's actually function.

**[01:31:48]** But I have something there that I know our customers or my employees are experiencing.

**[01:31:54]** Pavel, I have to cut this here.

**[01:31:57]** Alright then.

**[01:31:58]** Thank you very much, thanks a lot, it was great. Thank you for your time, thank you for your tips, let's applaud.

**[01:32:05]** Thank you.

**[01:32:06]** Thank you.

**[01:32:36]** And I recommend you do some reflection at this breakfast, whether at your company, team, family, or however, whoever wants to,

**[01:32:43]** Some aha moments, we have a guide with some questions that might help you with this.

**[01:32:49]** Pavlína and I will meet on the morning of November 13th, that's 30 on Digestive.

**[01:32:55]** I'll invite a few people who deal with trends and innovations, so it will be a discussion when something matures,

**[01:33:01]** to push it a little further. It will last about an hour, so if you'd like to join, anyone can, just write in.

**[01:33:08]** Yes, we have more business breakfasts, back to Feedback with Pavel Pumperla.

**[01:33:13]** Michal Šrajer, trends and future technologies, I'm really looking forward to Michal because he's exactly the guy from Gaussovka,

**[01:33:20]** who is among the early adopters and innovators, so whatever he comes up with will be interesting.

**[01:33:25]** So we're really looking forward to exploring these topics further.

**[01:33:30]** Collaboration and Baťa principles in the school of life by Jan Košturek.

**[01:33:34]** Book of the month, if you liked Filonite in September, here is October. Andi Hurichová from the Red Button network recommended another book,

**[01:33:43]** so this is another option.

**[01:33:46]** And I'll invite you to another breakfast, which follows the trend of being in greenery and working in the forest and nature.

**[01:33:56]** Richard Krajník will come, who is building a company where payment is made with trees, and we'll talk about how such a company is built, what it all involves,

**[01:34:05]** and how he managed to build a company that has already planted more than 300,000 trees, which is absolutely unique.

**[01:34:12]** So that will be on November 20th again from 8:30. Pavla, thanks again, thank you all for coming, and for watching us,

**[01:34:20]** have a great time, thanks a lot, bye and see you.

**[01:34:42]** Subtitles created by JohnyX http://johnyxcz.blogspot.com